Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
